NRCan CWFIS · longer-range fire-weather guidance

Quebec Seasonal Wildfire Outlook

Quebec's seasonal outlook provides longer-range fire-weather context across the province's vast forested regions while SOPFEU incident reporting remains authoritative for current fires and operational status.

Official source cadence

Updated monthly on the first business day after the 6th from April through September.

FireRadar does not invent an interim seasonal value between official CWFIS updates. Check the source map for the currently published forecast month and model products.

How to read the seasonal forecast

Forecast Severity Rating

A longer-range estimate of potential seasonal fire-weather severity. Similar values can still produce different real-world fire outcomes.

Severity Anomaly

Shows how forecast severity compares with what is typical for that location and time of year.

Probabilistic Forecast

Communicates confidence and agreement across the forecast ensemble rather than pretending one deterministic outcome is certain.

95th-percentile fire-weather days

Highlights periods when forecast Fire Weather Index may be unusually high relative to the local climate. It does not capture every day on which extreme fire behaviour could occur.

What the outlook means for Quebec

Quebec's fire environment ranges from southern populated regions to immense northern forest. Long-range model signals can vary substantially across that area and do not replace SOPFEU information, local emergency authorities, daily fire danger, or measured air-quality observations. FireRadar does not turn the seasonal anomaly into a community-level risk prediction.

Move from outlook to current conditions