Ontario Seasonal Wildfire Outlook
Ontario's seasonal outlook provides longer-range fire-weather context for the province's large northern fire region while FireRadar's live Ontario page remains the source for current official incidents and status.
Updated monthly on the first business day after the 6th from April through September.
FireRadar does not invent an interim seasonal value between official CWFIS updates. Check the source map for the currently published forecast month and model products.
How to read the seasonal forecast
Forecast Severity Rating
A longer-range estimate of potential seasonal fire-weather severity. Similar values can still produce different real-world fire outcomes.
Severity Anomaly
Shows how forecast severity compares with what is typical for that location and time of year.
Probabilistic Forecast
Communicates confidence and agreement across the forecast ensemble rather than pretending one deterministic outcome is certain.
95th-percentile fire-weather days
Highlights periods when forecast Fire Weather Index may be unusually high relative to the local climate. It does not capture every day on which extreme fire behaviour could occur.
What the outlook means for Ontario
Ontario spans very different fire environments from the northwest boreal forest to the northeast and populated south. Seasonal forecast maps should be read regionally, not as a uniform province-wide threat assessment, and should be paired with current Ontario fire information as conditions evolve. Local winds, fuels and ignition patterns remain decisive at shorter time scales.