Northwest Territories Seasonal Wildfire Outlook
The Northwest Territories seasonal outlook adds longer-range fire-weather context across extensive boreal landscapes before the current territorial incident picture develops.
Updated monthly on the first business day after the 6th from April through September.
FireRadar does not invent an interim seasonal value between official CWFIS updates. Check the source map for the currently published forecast month and model products.
How to read the seasonal forecast
Forecast Severity Rating
A longer-range estimate of potential seasonal fire-weather severity. Similar values can still produce different real-world fire outcomes.
Severity Anomaly
Shows how forecast severity compares with what is typical for that location and time of year.
Probabilistic Forecast
Communicates confidence and agreement across the forecast ensemble rather than pretending one deterministic outcome is certain.
95th-percentile fire-weather days
Highlights periods when forecast Fire Weather Index may be unusually high relative to the local climate. It does not capture every day on which extreme fire behaviour could occur.
What the outlook means for Northwest Territories
The Northwest Territories includes vast forest, lakes, remote communities, limited road connections and aviation-dependent regions. Drought carry-over, snowmelt, lightning, wind and short-range weather can create major regional differences that a territory-wide seasonal signal cannot resolve. FireRadar keeps the outlook separate from current GNWT wildfire status and emergency instructions.