New Brunswick Seasonal Wildfire Outlook
New Brunswick's seasonal outlook adds longer-range fire-weather context to FireRadar's current incident and daily fire-danger products for the province's forested communities and rural areas.
Updated monthly on the first business day after the 6th from April through September.
FireRadar does not invent an interim seasonal value between official CWFIS updates. Check the source map for the currently published forecast month and model products.
How to read the seasonal forecast
Forecast Severity Rating
A longer-range estimate of potential seasonal fire-weather severity. Similar values can still produce different real-world fire outcomes.
Severity Anomaly
Shows how forecast severity compares with what is typical for that location and time of year.
Probabilistic Forecast
Communicates confidence and agreement across the forecast ensemble rather than pretending one deterministic outcome is certain.
95th-percentile fire-weather days
Highlights periods when forecast Fire Weather Index may be unusually high relative to the local climate. It does not capture every day on which extreme fire behaviour could occur.
What the outlook means for New Brunswick
New Brunswick's compact geography does not make conditions uniform: precipitation, spring drying, wind, fuels and human ignition patterns can vary locally and quickly. A seasonal model signal describes broad fire-weather potential and should not be interpreted as proof that a fire will occur in a specific community or that restrictions are in effect.