Manitoba Seasonal Wildfire Outlook
Manitoba's seasonal outlook adds longer-range fire-weather context before current incidents and smoke impacts are known, especially across the province's forested and remote northern regions.
Updated monthly on the first business day after the 6th from April through September.
FireRadar does not invent an interim seasonal value between official CWFIS updates. Check the source map for the currently published forecast month and model products.
How to read the seasonal forecast
Forecast Severity Rating
A longer-range estimate of potential seasonal fire-weather severity. Similar values can still produce different real-world fire outcomes.
Severity Anomaly
Shows how forecast severity compares with what is typical for that location and time of year.
Probabilistic Forecast
Communicates confidence and agreement across the forecast ensemble rather than pretending one deterministic outcome is certain.
95th-percentile fire-weather days
Highlights periods when forecast Fire Weather Index may be unusually high relative to the local climate. It does not capture every day on which extreme fire behaviour could occur.
What the outlook means for Manitoba
Wetlands, boreal forest, drought patterns, spring breakup, lightning and regional precipitation can produce large year-to-year differences in Manitoba. A seasonal anomaly is not a prediction of where a fire will start or whether a road or community will be affected. Remote northern areas can also experience conditions very different from southern Manitoba.