Alberta Seasonal Wildfire Outlook
Alberta's seasonal outlook provides longer-range fire-weather context across the foothills, boreal forest, parkland, and northern wildfire management areas before the live incident picture is known.
Updated monthly on the first business day after the 6th from April through September.
FireRadar does not invent an interim seasonal value between official CWFIS updates. Check the source map for the currently published forecast month and model products.
How to read the seasonal forecast
Forecast Severity Rating
A longer-range estimate of potential seasonal fire-weather severity. Similar values can still produce different real-world fire outcomes.
Severity Anomaly
Shows how forecast severity compares with what is typical for that location and time of year.
Probabilistic Forecast
Communicates confidence and agreement across the forecast ensemble rather than pretending one deterministic outcome is certain.
95th-percentile fire-weather days
Highlights periods when forecast Fire Weather Index may be unusually high relative to the local climate. It does not capture every day on which extreme fire behaviour could occur.
What the outlook means for Alberta
Spring snowmelt and drying, drought carry-over, wind events, fuels, and ignition patterns can change Alberta fire outcomes quickly. The seasonal forecast is planning context rather than an incident forecast, evacuation signal, or property-level risk score. Conditions in the foothills, central forest and far north can diverge substantially within the same outlook period.